This has led in the past years to a proliferation of different definitions and identification methodologies. The starting point for these studies nearly always involves trying to identify the so-called ‘zombie’ firms. JEL Code E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global WarmingĪbstract Since the term was first coined in studies on the 1990s Japanese crisis, the concept of zombification has been investigated and revived repeatedly when concerns arise about credit misallocation and stagnating productivity growth in an economy. Moreover, the downward pressure on r* will further challenge monetary policy in the long run, by limiting its policy space.
The downward effects of climate change on r* can be substantial, even taking into account the high degree of uncertainty about the outcomes. We discuss the main models used to simulate the effects of climate change on r* and summarize the outcomes. Orderly climate policies have a pivotal role by facilitating the transition to a carbon-neutral economy and supporting a steady investment flow. Instead, in scenarios that assume innovations and investments induced by transition policies, r* could be affected positively. Economic and financial developments can lower r* in scenarios with increasing climate-related damages and uncertainty that reduce productivity growth and raise precautionary savings. JEL Code E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation F10 : International Economics→Trade→General L83 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Sports, Gambling, Restaurants, Recreation, TourismĪbstract This survey reviews the literature about the impact of climate change on the natural rate of interest (r*), an important yardstick for monetary policy. Higher input prices in the tourism and recreation sector, waning pent-up demand for travel, falling real incomes and rising uncertainty may start to dampen demand for European tourism and recreation trade in services in the coming months.
For services, an earlier surge in bookings in the tourism sector has led to higher prices in that sector. These pressures are now slowly easing as export demand weakens and supply chains adjust. For goods trade, the analysis shows that bottlenecks in the international supply chain tend to precede upward pressures on import prices for intermediate goods.
Abstract This Box provides an assessment of trends in European trade in goods and the tourism sector in 2022 using Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI).
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